What began as a US-Israeli strike campaign has evolved into a full-scale multi-front regional conflict, extending far beyond a bilateral confrontation between Iran and the US/Israel alliance.
Major active fronts:
• US/Israeli air campaign targeting Iranian leadership, missile sites, air defenses, nuclear-related facilities, and energy infrastructure.
• Iranian direct and proxy attacks on Gulf states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia), with energy and industrial facilities heavily targeted.
• Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly impacting global oil/LNG flows and shipping.
• Iranian missile and drone barrages targeting Israel.
• Intensified Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon.
Secondary fronts:
• US strikes against Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militias in Iraq.
• Iranian strikes on Kurdish targets in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Iraq.
• Iranian strikes in Jordan and Oman.
• Ongoing spillover and volatility in Syria.
Lesser spillovers:
• Attacks on UK military bases in Cyprus and the Indian Ocean.
• Missiles fired toward Turkey, intercepted by NATO air defence.
• UAV attacks in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave.
• Renewed violence in the Palestinian Territories.
Potential or escalating fronts:
• Frequent Ansar Allah (Houthi) attacks on Israel, and threats to resume disruptions in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
• Possible direct retaliation by Saudi Arabia and the UAE against Iran.
• Potential US ground operation(s) or large-scale strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
• Houthis vs. Saudi Arabia and broader Yemen spillover risks.
• Ethnic insurgencies or internal unrest inside Iran.
This is no longer a simple fight between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli coalition. It has become a complex, interconnected regional war with profound implications for global energy markets, international trade routes, and food security. President Trump’s latest deadline (in a series he has set and extended since March) for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires tonight. The coming hours could prove decisive in determining whether the conflict remains contained or escalates across additional fronts.
