Israel has become the first country to formally recognize the independence of the breakaway Republic of Somaliland, more than three decades after the region seceded from Somalia. This move carries broader strategic implications, shaping regional power balances and offering insight into Jerusalem’s evolving priorities and strategic outlook.
Short Historical Background
Somaliland is predominantly inhabited by the Isaaq clan, one of Somalia’s major clan families. Unlike the rest of Somalia, which was under Italian colonial rule, Somaliland was administered by Britain. Following World War II and a fifteen-year transitional period under Italian and UN supervision, Somalia gained independence. At that time, the Isaaq leadership in Somaliland opted to join the newly independent Somali state.
This arrangement began to unravel eight years later, when Somalia became a communist state following a military coup. The regime’s policies—particularly after its failed attempt to invade and annex Ethiopia’s Somali-inhabited Ogaden region—led to the political and economic marginalization of the Isaaq community. This marginalization gave rise to the Somali National Movement (SNM), which launched the Somaliland War of Independence.
The conflict lasted from 1981 to 1991. In the late 1980s, the communist regime carried out a genocidal campaign against the Isaaq population in an effort to prevent Somaliland’s secession. Ultimately, amid a widening civil war, the regime collapsed. In the ensuing state breakdown, Somaliland managed to secure and maintain de facto independence.
Why Israel’s Decision to Recognize Somaliland Matters
1. Somaliland is located on the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden, in proximity to Bab el-Mandeb — the strategic strait linking the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. An Israeli presence in Somaliland would give Israel greater operational reach against the Ansar Allah (Houthi) forces in Yemen.
2. It is increasingly clear that, following the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been working together on regional political and security issues. Evidence of this coordination is evident in Yemen, Sudan, and Libya. In Somalia’s case, the UAE supports the Republic of Somaliland, even though it has not yet formally recognized it. The potential formalization of Israeli-Emirati cooperation in this context is of particular importance for the broader geopolitical dynamics of the region.
3. Strengthening Somaliland would be detrimental to Turkey’s policy in the Horn of Africa. Ankara has made substantial investments in Somalia, and an expanded Israeli presence would further complicate the geopolitical landscape for Turkey. Under certain conditions, this development could open a new chapter of rivalry between Israel and Turkey, extending their existing competition from Syria, Palestine, and the Eastern Mediterranean into the Horn of Africa.
