1. Accelerated prioritization of alternative energy routes & infrastructure, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz (e.g., Saudi East-West pipeline).
Potential challenges: long-term, costly projects with limited capacity.
2. Shifting but uncertain prospects for Arab-Israeli normalization.
Potential challenges: strong Arab public opposition and fears of Israeli regional dominance.
3. More assertive & offensive-oriented Israeli regional policy (buffer zones, preemptive strikes, and shaping a new security order).
Potential challenges: possible formation of new anti-Israel coalitions, and long-term instability in Lebanon, Syria & the Palestinian Territories.
4. Significant deterioration in Saudi-Iran (and GCC-Iran) relations, unless major regime change occurs.
Potential challenges: continued hybrid/proxy warfare (e.g., in Yemen) and Gulf instability.
5. Fragmentation and weakening of Iranian proxy networks (Hezbollah, PMF, Houthis).
Potential challenges: proxies turning more unpredictable, raising conflict risks in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
6. Uncertain future for the Iranian regime: instability, succession crisis, or internal fragmentation.
Potential challenges: a weakened but still dangerous Iran threatening Gulf states, spillover instability to neighbors, and risk of internal political violence.
7. Deepening transatlantic tensions and crisis in U.S.-NATO relations under Trump’s administration.
Potential challenges: erosion of alliance cohesion, reduced U.S. willingness to bear security burdens, and Trump’s punitive measures against non-supportive allies.
